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About Legion X
Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.
With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.
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Durigan recalled that Lula has already made clear his discomfort with the cost and quality of life for people.
“Therefore, we have been having this debate,” he added. “I have been to Congress, the Supreme Federal Court, and the Attorney General’s office to talk about the impact of betting on the lives of Brazilians.
“We have made progress, such as increasing the direct tax to 15% and including the activity in the Selective Tax. Those benefiting from social programmes and those who joined the Desenrola programme were also prohibited from betting.”
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Fred Done, the 83-year-old founder of Betfred and Britain’s highest-paying taxpayer this year, has issued a stark warning about the impact of further tax increases on the gambling industry.
In an interview with the Financial Times over the weekend, Done cautioned that additional tax hikes could result in widespread betting shop closures, harm related sectors such as horse racing and accelerate the decline of the high street.
Betfred currently operates approximately 1,094 retail shops across the UK. Done highlighted the concrete risks of Machine Gaming Duty – taxes on gambling machines – doubling from 20% to 40%, a move reportedly under consideration by Chancellor John Healey ahead of the Autumn Budget.
