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Cirsa’s implied pro forma value, before synergies, corresponds to an multiple of approximately 6x its expected 2026 EV/EBITDA which will be between €800 million and €820 million, according to the operator’s most recent earnings.
According to a joint press release, the combined company would hold “undisputed leadership positions” in both Italy and Spain, with the group set to hold a duel listing on the Milan and Spanish stock exchanges.
The group is expected to have an addressable market of up to €34 billion when combining all its available markets, including Portugal, Mexico and Colombia.
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Andrew Gonzalez, founder of prediction market infrastructure startup ParlayX, believes the ability of small teams to provide liquidity is one of the sector’s defining features. “Anyone can be a market maker,” he said. “You have these two- or three-man shops.”
Jefferies described market makers as the ecosystem’s “liquidity backbone”. They post executable bids and offers, manage inventory and provide prices when customer activity is heavily weighted to one side.
The analysts estimated that an operator capturing a one-cent spread and managing its exposure successfully could generate net economics of approximately $1.69 on a $100 trade. Returns are not guaranteed: adverse price movements and unresolved inventory can offset or exceed income from spreads, rebates and liquidity incentives.
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The charter does not create new regulatory obligations and was designed to complement legislation including the EU AI Act and GDPR.
Instead, it proposed a risk-based approach. It suggested lighter controls on use cases such as coding assistants, but strong checks on customer-facing functions, particularly those involving fraud and responsible gambling.
Kenneth Brincat, CEO of the MDIA, said companies needed “practical ways” to better understand where AI fits within their businesses.