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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
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The investment banking and capital markets firm Jefferies said in a September report that sports had become prediction markets’ “most important liquidity driver”, with combo and parlay-style contracts accounting for an increasing share of activity. But the analysts cautioned that prediction markets are scale businesses with relatively low revenue yields, leaving their economics dependent on sustained liquidity, engagement and trading activity.
James Monk, founder of sports data and streaming provider Catalist Sports, has witnessed that dependence directly. Catalist supplies ITF tennis data to Kalshi and Polymarket and has an exclusive US sports-streaming agreement with Kalshi.
The company must also provide data to the firms making markets on those events.
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Jesper Kampmann Madsen, the founder of London-based tech firm Trace2Trace, is building technology to map the networks behind illegal gambling. Madsen, 35, and born in Denmark, knows what it means to be on the other side of the screen: as his decision to fight illegal gambling stems back to his own addiction, he tells iGB.
He was a teenager when he started gambling habitually. For several years, it remained entertainment. Then, when he was in his early twenties, came a large win on a foreign unlicensed gambling site: around €22,000.
“I remember gambling all of it back the same day because they couldn’t pay it out in full immediately,” he says.
